As a priority country, in Nigeria Reall is committed to expanding end-user housing finance solutions to 2 million previously excluded low-income and informally employed borrowers by 2025; addressing critical governance, policy, standards and regulatory barriers that impede the market, achieving positive change for 1 million people by 2025; resolving data voids and evidence gaps that have inhibited more effective solutions for affordable housing; and building capacity for low-carbon building, renewable energy and green finance in the affordable housing space. CAHF has been active in Nigeria since 2010, when it published a study on Nigeria’s Housing Sector, in collaboration with Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA). More recently, CAHF’s main partner in Nigeria has been the Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company.
Country Overview
The disruptive impact of COVID-19 is broad, extensive and pervades the entire economic value-chain in Nigeria. This was worsened in the first quarter of 2020 by the crash in oil prices to its lowest levels in decades. The combination of the reduced forex earnings through the oil sector, pressure to service external debt and the continued pandemic environment has contributed to the challenge of housing in Nigeria.
The widening gap between the housing demand and supply is caused by a multiplicity of factors including land acquisition, high cost of building materials, scarcity of accessible affordable housing finance and lack of proper land regulation and policy. The Nigerian government in its efforts to ameliorate the negative impact of the pandemic and oil crisis, revised the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) to provide appropriate and sustainable solutions for the country. Family Homes Fund (FHF) has recently been appointed by the CBN to manage the execution of the social housing component of the ESP that is expected to produce 300,000 additional units each year.
State of Housing Data
Over the last twelve months, there has been a general consensus towards improving the sharing of data within the sector. Following the partnership engineered by the Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria (REDAN) with both government and private sector players including the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company (NMRC), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria Population Commission (NPopC), Pison Housing Company, Value Chain Mortgage Affordability Platform (VC-MAP) and many others. The Housing Market Information Portal (HMIP) has been designated as a primary data repository for the sector, hosted by the NMRC.
Text on this page is based on the MSI Nigeria Country Profile ¹, drawn from Centre for Affordable Housing Finance (2020). Housing Finance in Africa Yearbook: 11th Edition 2020 ², with additional content from CAHF and Reall.
% of urban bottom 40 households without access to basic sanitation services
Country | Year | Data Source | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Cote d'Ivoire | 2012 | DHS | 96.5% |
Ghana | 2014 | DHS | 93.15% |
Kenya | 2014 | DHS | 88.25% |
Morocco | 2004 | DHS | 52.05% |
Mozambique | 2011 | DHS | 95.6% |
Nigeria | 2018 | DHS | 83.1% |
Tanzania | 2017 | DHS | 37% |
Uganda | 2016 | DHS | 94.5% |
Rwanda | 2016 | National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR) | 13.13% |
Pakistan | 2018 | The DHS Program | 2.75% |
India | 2018 | NSSO 76th Round | 0.2% |
% of urban population living in slums, informal settlements, or inadequate dwellings
Country | Year | Data Source | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Cote d'Ivoire | N/A | ||
Ghana | N/A | ||
Kenya | N/A | ||
Morocco | N/A | ||
Mozambique | N/A | ||
Nigeria | N/A | ||
Tanzania | N/A | ||
Uganda | N/A | ||
Rwanda | 2018 | World Bank | 42.1% |
Pakistan | N/A | ||
India | 2018 | NSSO 76th Round | 35% |
Number of residential mortgages outstanding
Country | Year | Data Source | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Kenya | 2019 | Central Bank of Kenya | 27,993 |
Nigeria | 2019 | NMRC | 32,260 |
Tanzania | 2019 | Bank of Tanzania and Tanzania Mortgage Refinance Company Limited | 5,460 |
Rwanda | 2020 | National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) | 44,177 |
Pakistan | 2019 | State Bank of Pakistan - Housing Finance Data Review | 58,620 |
India | 2020 | Reserve Bank of India | 9,817,180 |
Price of the cheapest, newly built dwelling by a formal developer or contractor
Country | Year | Data Source | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Cote d'Ivoire | 2018 | Site d'annonce et promotion dans l'immobilier en Côte d'Ivoire | 15,500,000 CFA$27,087.48 |
Ghana | 2019 | Damax Construction Co. Ltd | 108,704 GH₵$19,621.66 |
Kenya | 2019 | Tsavo Real Estate | 4,000,000 Ksh$37,037.04 |
Morocco | 2019 | Various real estate websites | 250,000 DH$27,027.03 |
Mozambique | 2016 | Casa Minha | 3,418,491 MZ$48,147.76 |
Nigeria | 2019 | Millard Fuller Foundation; Shelter Origins | 2,900,000 NGN$7,651.72 |
Tanzania | 2018 | CAHF | 37,966,107 TZS$16,508.58 |
Uganda | 2019 | Various property developers | 125,000,000 UGX$34,097.11 |
Rwanda | 2020 | Marchal Real Estate Developers | 10,000,000 R₣$11,119.14 |
Pakistan | 2021 | Partners | 2,500,000 PKR$14,305.33 |
India | 2022 | Real estate websites and industry experts | 160,000 IN₹$2,176.87 |
% of national households that rent their dwelling
Country | Year | Data Source | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Ghana | 2017 | Ghana Statistical Service | 28% |
Kenya | 2019 | Central Bank of Kenya, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, FSD Kenya | 35.01% |
Morocco | 2014 | High Commission for Planning; World Bank | 18.5% |
Nigeria | 2018 | World Bank; Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics | 21.8% |
Tanzania | 2017 | National Bureau of Statistics | 80.56% |
Uganda | 2016 | DHS | 53.45% |
Rwanda | 2020 | Access to Finance Rwanda (AFR) and National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR) | 8.94% |
Pakistan | 2017 | Population and Housing Census | 11.53% |
India | 2018 | NSSO 76th Round | 13% |
Ease of Doing Business Index Rank: Global
Country | Year | Data Source | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Cote d'Ivoire | 2020 | World Bank | 110 |
Ghana | 2020 | World Bank | 118 |
Kenya | 2019 | World Bank Ease of Doing Business | 61 |
Morocco | 2020 | World Bank | 53 |
Mozambique | 2019 | World Bank | 74 |
Nigeria | 2020 | World Bank | 131 |
Tanzania | 2020 | World Bank | 141 |
Uganda | 2020 | World Bank | 116 |
Rwanda | 2020 | World Bank Ease of Doing Business Indicators | 38 out of 190 |
Pakistan | 2020 | World Bank Doing Business Indicator | 108 out of 190 |
India | 2020 | World Bank | 63 out of 190 |
GDP Per Capita
Country | Year | Data Source | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Cote d'Ivoire | 2018 | World Bank | 1,024,171 CFA$1,789.82 |
Ghana | 2019 | World Bank | 11,489 GH₵$2,073.83 |
Kenya | 2018 | World Bank | 173,272 Ksh$1,604.37 |
Morocco | 2018 | World Bank | 30,725 DH$3,321.62 |
Mozambique | 2018 | World Bank | 30,772 MZ$433.41 |
Nigeria | 2018 | World Bank | 659,159 NGN$1,739.21 |
Tanzania | 2018 | National Bureau of Statistics; World Bank | 2,297,020 TZS$998.80 |
Uganda | 2018 | World Bank | 2,357,327 UGX$643.02 |
Rwanda | 2019 | World Bank | 737,578.59 R₣$820.12 |
Pakistan | 2020 | World Bank National Accounts Data | 188,900 PKR$1,080.91 |
India | 2020 | Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation | 151,760 IN₹$2,064.76 |
Population Size
Country | Year | Data Source | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Cote d'Ivoire | 2017 | World Bank | 24,437,469 |
Ghana | 2019 | World Bank | 30,417,856 |
Kenya | 2017 | World Bank | 50,221,473 |
Morocco | 2017 | World Bank | 36,471,769 |
Mozambique | 2018 | World Bank | 29,495,962 |
Nigeria | 2017 | World Bank | 190,873,311 |
Tanzania | 2019 | World Bank | 58,005,463 |
Uganda | 2017 | World Bank | 41,487,000 |
Rwanda | 2019 | World Bank | 12,626,950 |
Pakistan | 2020 | World Bank National Accounts Data | 220,892,331 |
India | 2021 | Minsitry of Health and Family Welfare | 1,361,343,000 |
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The Market Shaping Indicators project is a work in progress. Significant gaps exist in data, which will be filled in future revisions. We would recommend checking back regularly for updates. We are keen to receive any feedback that you have on this Dashboard, which can be sent to [email protected].
Using the Dashboard
The indicators are split into 6 key areas, split into the Housing Value Chain: Land & Infrastructure, Construction & Investment, Sales & Rental, Maintenance & Management, Enabling Environment, Economic Environment and Demand, shown in the following tabs. Navigation can either be undertaken by using the tabs, or through the Search box immediately above. Above this, currency indicators can be toggled between USD and local currency.
Users are able to further interrogate each indicator each indicator through clicking on the arrows to the left of each indicator. This expanded section shows the data elements that are used to produce the overall indicator value, dates of data collection, source details, hyperlinks to the original data where possible, and a breakdown of data quality. The majority of indicators are quality assessed, based on the whether they are: Interpretable; Relevant; Sufficiently Accurate; Representative; Timely; and Accessible. Indicators are scored on each of these criteria using a 1-4 star system, detailed below:
☆ – poor
☆☆ – moderate
☆☆☆ – good
☆☆☆☆ – excellent
Finally, all data can be downloaded for further interrogation. By clicking on Switch to Data View at the top of the screen, users can filter data based on countries and columns, and download in a .csv or .xls file.
Bottom 40
Reall targets the Bottom 40% of the urban income pyramid, referred to as the ‘Bottom 40’ or ‘B40’. An objective of the MSI work was to better understand and demonstrate the market from the perspective of households in the Bottom 40, and as such data is aggregated for this group where possible. Data for this group can be particularly challenging to come across. In part, this is due to the difficulties in accurately defining this group using existing data sets. Additionally though, the informality of much of life for lower income groups severely limits data availability, particularly in terms of key data on jobs, housing and relationships with local government. This lack of data is a key blockage for further engagement at the lower end of the housing market, and resolving this is an objective of Reall’s and of the MSI work.
Aggregations
Data is shown at various different “aggregations”, which demonstrate the size and location of the population for which the data represents. This varies from national to city level in terms of population groupings. Additional aggregations exist for the Bottom 40, as detailed above, enabling a focused view on the lower end of the market.
For relevant data, Reall’s partners are also included as an aggregation. This is not meant to be representative of the entire market, but recognises that as practitioners and experts within the lower end of the housing market of each country, their experiences are a useful check on other data sets, and an indication of the value when other data is not available.
Terms of Use
Reall Ltd (“Reallâ€) endeavours to make its data as freely available as possible in order to demonstrate the successes of its model and encourage other actors into the affordable homes movement. Reall provides the user with access to these data free of charge subject to the terms of this agreement.
Users are encouraged to use the data to benefit themselves and others in creative ways.
Unless specifically labelled otherwise, you are free to copy, distribute, adapt, display or include the data in other products for commercial or non-commercial purposes for no cost under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, with the additional terms below.  The basic terms may be accessed here. By using or downloading the data, users are agreeing to comply with the terms of a CC BY 4.0 licence, and also agreeing to the following mandatory and binding additions:
– You agree to provide attribution to Reall in any published use of the data, including but not limited to articles, papers, blogs, books. Usage includes both direct publication of the existing data, along with any analysis undertaken by the user. This attribution should include Reall’s name and the following link – reall.net/dashboard. An electronic copy of all reports and publications based on the data should be shared with Reall ([email protected]).
– When sharing or facilitating access to the data, you agree to include the same acknowledgement requirement in any sub-licences of the data that you grant, and a requirement that any sub-licences do the same. You may meet this requirement by providing the uniform resource locator (URL) to these terms of use.
– Some datasets and indicators may be provided by third parties, and may not be redistributed or reused without the consent of the original data provider, or may be subject to additional terms and conditions. Where applicable, third party data is labelled as such, and usage conditions can be found on their respective websites.
Land
The Land Use Decree 6 of 1978 vests all land to each State Governor, and hinders most Nigerians’ ability to acquire land ¹. The formality of the title system delays land registration as every process and transaction requires consent from the State Governor ².
Infrastructure
According to the 2020 World Bank Doing Business report, Nigeria ranks 171 out of 190 countries in getting electricity, and electricity access is seen as one of the major constraints for the private sector. It is estimated that 44 percent of households are without access to basic electricity, compared to 84 percent of the households in the Urban Bottom 40 of the income pyramid. The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) estimates that 83 percent of the households in the Urban Bottom 40 are living without access to basic sanitation services and 55 percent without access to basic drinking water services. According to the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, addressing Nigeria’s infrastructure challenges will require sustained expenditure of almost US$14.2 billion per year ³.
Of the 23 indicators in this group, 12 are currently populated.
Nigeria’s housing deficit continues to grow and is currently estimated at 17 million. Nigeria’s housing backlog continues to pose health challenges to many individuals as 60 to 79 percent of urban Nigerians are slum dwellers ¹, making them particularly vulnerable to the transmission of communicable diseases. The widening gap between housing demand and supply is caused by a multiplicity of factors including land acquisition, high cost of building materials, scarcity of accessible affordable housing finance and lack of proper land regulation and policy.
Many private sector participants are however working to bridge the housing supply gap, including in the low income segment. An example is Reall partner Millard Fuller Foundation (MFF) which provides an opportunity for low income earners to purchase their houses through a variety of convenient payment options. In 2020, the price of the cheapest newly built dwelling by a formal developer was estimated to be ₦2.8 million (US$8 040) in an urban area, and was delivered by MFF ².
There is a strong preference in Nigeria for using cement in all building construction, which has been a driver of cost increases in the past year. Due to a combination of supply disruptions and other factors, cement prices have fluctuated between NGN 2250 and NGN 4500 per 50kg bag in various parts of the country ³.
The COVID-19 pandemic in no small measure affected the supply of housing, as the construction sector was not considered essential during initial lockdowns in 2020. In its most recent response to COVID-19, the CBN articulated the need to boost the housing sector through some deliberate interventions ⁴. Some of the interventions include provision of ₦1 trillion in loans to boost local manufacturing and production across critical sectors; enabling the rapid recovery of the economy by focusing on sectors that will generate massive employment and economic empowerment throughout the country; focusing on four main areas, namely light manufacturing, affordable housing, renewable energy, and cutting-edge research ⁵.
Of the 19 indicators in this group, 8 are currently populated.
Mortgages
Registered mortgage providers have increased from 34 in 2019 to 35 in 2020, with 22 commercial banks and 7 microfinance banks, improving financial capability in the housing sector ¹. A few commercial banks such as First Bank, UBA, Union Bank, Stanbic IBTC and Access Bank continue to provide home loans that also cover repairs and renovations to Nigerians. The interest rate is fixed for the whole period of the loan.
In 2019, the mortgage portfolio was at 0.17 percent of GDP with the total outstanding number and value estimated to be 32 260 and ₦269.68 billion (US$749.1 million) respectively. Outside of the government subsidised loan framework, market rate mortgages range from 17 percent to 25 percent per annum. Maximum loan repayment tenors are 10 to 20 years, with lenders demanding a 30 to 50 percent equity contribution ².
The Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) is the most affordable housing finance provider in the country, as a government subsidised window for loans up to ₦15 million (US$38 836). FMBN’s housing loans are available to contributors to the National Housing Fund (NHF) Scheme, a social savings scheme designed to mobilise long-term funds from Nigerian workers, banks, insurance companies and the government to increase access to affordable housing finance. FMBN gives concessionary loans to the Primary Mortgage Banks (PMBs) at a 4 percent interest rate, while the mortgage banks provide loans to qualified workers that contribute to the NHF scheme at 6 percent per annum with payment tenors of up to 30 years ³.
FMBN’s loans are zero equity contribution for loans under ₦5 million (US$12 945) while only 10 percent equity is required for loans ranging from ₦5 million to ₦15 million (US$38 836). Subscribers can only apply after contributing 2.5 percent of basic monthly salaries for six months. As part of FMBN’s response to COVID-19, the bank has promised to focus a considerable amount of its portfolio to engender affordable housing in the informal sector. To be able to do this, the bank is relying on the Bank Verification Number (BVN) technology (a unique identifier system created by the Central Bank of Nigeria) to guarantee repayments ⁴.
Affordability
In 2020, the price of cheapest newly built dwelling by Reall partner MFF was estimated to be ₦2.8 million (US$8 040) in an urban area ⁵. Under standard financial products, it is estimated that the maximum house price affordable to the households in the Bottom 40% would be NGN 1 946 280 (US$5 588) assuming a 20 percent down payment – if finance could be secured from a financial institution, and an available product could be found to purchase.
A review of the Roland Igbinoba House Price Index (RI Index) shows that the movement of house prices in the second quarter of 2020 was more erratic than in the first quarter of the same year (Q1 2020) and the same quarter in the previous year (Q2 2019). Average house prices fell in Port Harcourt and Kaduna but were more resilient in Lagos and Abuja. The general poor performance of average house prices in the second quarter of 2020 is largely related to the pandemic’s impact on economic activities in the country.
Of the 40 indicators in this group, 18 are currently populated.